Aggression and Belligerence Are in Communist China’s Future
Xi Jinping’s coronation at the just-concluded 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CCP) bodes ill for the world. Congress endorsed Xi as general secretary of the 20th CPC Central Committee, chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), as well as packing the 20th Politburo and CMC with Xi’s allies.
Xi’s consolidation of power paves the way for the broader pursuit of the CCP’s global ambitions, which include displacing the United States as the world’s largest economy and replacing the existing international order with an alternative “with Chinese characteristics.” . Xi has crafted various strategic initiatives aimed at achieving global dominance over time, including the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, also known as “One Belt, One Road”), Made in China 2025, Maritime Silk Road , Digital Silk Road, Global Security Initiative, Global Development Initiative, etc.
The goal is the modernization of China’s industrial base – and ultimately the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) – through the infusion, exploitation, theft and transfer of advanced technologies into the economy. Chinese. Economic dominance as “factory, industrial warehouse and supplier to the world” is accompanied by geopolitical and military dominance. And China has set a century-old goal of being able to build and deploy a fully modern military by 2027, as reported by the Global Times.
During his report to the 20th Congress, Xi hinted at his intentions to use the PLA’s growing capabilities more aggressively in the future. He said China will become “better able to deploy our military forces in a steady and diverse manner, and our military will remain both steadfast and flexible in conducting its operations.”
The world has witnessed an element of these “diverse paths” in the PLA’s intimidation operations across the Taiwan Strait in recent months. In August, the Wall Street Journal reported that “Chinese planes and ships crossed the middle mark of the Taiwan Strait” into Taiwan’s ADIZ to conduct simulated attacks on Taiwan.
Other aspects in the future will likely include power projection, forward presence and influence operations supporting BRI-related trade in South Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Watch for more PLA Navy “show the Chinese flag” port visits in the Persian Gulf and some African countries over time. Xi intends the PLA to be the “iron fist in the velvet glove” of communist Chinese diplomacy and trade relations in the future.
China’s neighbors are watching closely and have immediate concerns about Beijing’s regional intentions. From Japan’s annual white paper, “Defence of Japan 2022”: “Chinese military tendencies, combined with insufficient transparency on China’s defense policies and military affairs, have become a matter of grave concern for the region, including Japan and the international community, and these trends have intensified in recent years.
These worrying military trends include: the rapid expansion of the PLA Navy (new aircraft carriers, amphibious assault ships, missile destroyers and nuclear submarines); the development and deployment of hypersonic missile systems; the modernization of the J-20 stealth fighters; the introduction of the H-20 stealth bomber; the rapid modernization of the PLA Rocket Force; advances in “intelligent warfare”; the deployment of modern ISR capabilities and the development of advanced weapons, including the testing of a Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) that deployed a hypersonic hover vehicle that could be used to deliver nuclear weapons; and significant improvements in joint operations.
Perhaps most troubling is the ongoing Chinese nuclear escape. As reported by the US Naval Institute, Toshi Yoshihara, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic Budgetary Assessment, said that “China is building hundreds of new missile silos in the western part of the country, deploying mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles , is developing a fleet of new strategic bombers with improved long-range strike capabilities and the deployment of additional ballistic missile submarines. These developments mark a shift from past Chinese statements about their “benevolent intentions” regarding their nuclear intentions.
There are growing concerns that the CCP’s true goal goes beyond mere parity with the United States in nuclear delivery systems and warheads. While the New START treaty limits the United States to “1,550 nuclear warheads on deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armament,” the Chinese Communists are not bound by any nuclear limitation agreement. nuclear weapons and continue to resist bilateral talks on nuclear weapons. with the United States.
Along with the development, modernization and rapid expansion of PLA capabilities, the Chinese have developed an integrated politico-military strategy for hybrid warfare that weaves together various diplomatic and other non-kinetic actions in a coordinated manner to achieve the designated tactical and strategic objectives. . The aim is to achieve these objectives without resorting to the use of force, if possible, using a variety of synchronized tactics. These include in particular the following:
- Set a target/objective and publicize it nationally and internationally through public media.
- Infiltrate and exploit international institutions to undermine and influence international conventions and norms to achieve the target/objective.
- Using psychological/informational warfare to influence decision makers and the masses of people.
- Ignore past treaties and commitments and violate them when it suits you (the absorption of Hong Kong is an example).
- Exploit the Communists’ new national security law to coerce and control overseas Chinese and intimidate and influence foreign governments.
- Using cyber warfare and social media to interrupt, confuse and ultimately influence foreign decision-making processes in support of the CCP’s target/objective.
- Intimidate other nations through the “wolf warrior” diplomatic corps, Chinese coast guard, PLA naval operations, PLA overflights, and other direct actions.
- Leverage foreign peacemakers, sympathetic journalists, think tanks, bribed and vetted diplomats, and others to create an echo chamber that reinforces the CCP’s policies and plans related to the target/goal.
- Vehemently and publicly denounce any resistance and attempts to defeat and deter the CCP’s policies, plans and actions related to the target/goal.
- Relentlessly pursue the coordinated hybrid warfare tactics above until the target/goal is achieved.
Xi has made no secret of his intentions to elevate China to the rank of world leader in all spheres of human endeavour. The real tells are the first words of two of his great projects: the Global development initiative and Global Safety initiative. He has overall (if not megalomaniac) conceptions about the rest of the world that are not benign.
Xi’s report to the 20th Communist Party Congress provided tantalizing insights into his domestic and international goals, as well as his plans to “diversify” the People’s Liberation Army’s operations and missions to help achieve those goals. He hailed the PLA’s rapid and continuous modernization. And the appointment of his cronies to the Central Military Commission should be seen as a red flag and a sign of future Chinese aggression in East Asia and beyond.
The PCC has developed and tested various hybrid warfare concepts to enhance and augment the PLA’s kinetic operations. Various aspects of these hybrid warfare tactics have been and are being implemented against the United States, Japan, Australia, India, the Philippines, and Taiwan. Unfortunately, there are only too many people in the world who are willing to help Xi and the communists achieve their goals of world domination.
The signals of impending Chinese aggression and belligerence are as clear as day.
The opinions expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of The Epoch Times.