Asia’s sea level is rising at a faster rate: Indian scientist on IPCC report
By Vishal Gulati
New Delhi, Aug 9 (SocialNews.XYZ) Sea levels around Asia have risen faster than the global average, with coastal area loss and coastline receding. Sea level extremes that previously occurred once every 100 years could occur once every six to nine years by 2050, and every year by 2100 globally, according to Swapna Panickal, a scientist at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.
Speaking exclusively to IANS on the findings of the largest update on the state of knowledge on climate science from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations organization , published Monday with its impact on India, it said that the Indian Ocean is warming. at a rate higher than the world’s oceans.
“Fifty percent of sea level rise is due to thermal expansion. Therefore, sea level in the Indian Ocean region is also rising. Global average sea level is increasing at a rate of about 3.7 millimeters per year estimated between 2006 and 2018.
“At 1.5 degrees, the sea temperature is expected to rise by one degree. Thus, in accordance with this, the global sea level and that of the Indian Ocean are also expected to rise at a similar rate.”
According to her, the South and Southeast Asian monsoon weakened in the second half of the 20th century (high confidence).
“The main cause of the observed decrease in monsoon precipitation in South and Southeast Asia since the middle of the 20th century is the anthropogenic forcing of aerosols. Annual and summer monsoon precipitation will increase over the 21st century, with increased interannual variability (medium confidence), ”Panickal told IANS in an interview.
She is one of the authors of the IPCC Working Group I report titled “Climate Change 2021: The Basis of the Physical Sciences”.
She said extreme heat has increased while extreme cold has decreased, and that these trends will continue over the next decades.
According to the report, an increase in annual average precipitation is expected.
The increase in precipitation will be more severe in southern India. On the southwest coast, precipitation could increase by about 20% from 1850-1900.
“If we warm by 4 degrees Celsius, India could see its precipitation increase by about 40% per year,” he says.
Citing the report, Panickal said there is low confidence in long-term trends (several decades to 100 years) in the frequency of tropical cyclones in all categories.
The intensity of the tropical cyclone will increase, however, the frequency of genesis will decrease or remain unchanged.
After two weeks of hard work across time zones with the cooperation of 234 scientists and endorsed by government officials from 195 countries, the climate science report covers topics such as extreme weather, human attribution, carbon budget, feedback cycles and plots the future state of the climate.
According to the IPCC report, the global surface temperature during the first two decades of the 21st century (2001-2020) was 0.99 (0.84-1.10) degrees Celsius higher than in 1850-1909. The global surface temperature was 1.09 (0.95 to 1.20) degrees higher in 2011-2020 than in 1850-1900.
The 1.5 degree target calls for a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050.
Climate scientists say the window is short but can be mobilized through political will and increased ambition.
He finds that on average over the next 20 years, the global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. He uses a set of five emissions scenarios to explore the impact of a wider range. greenhouse gases, land uses and air. pollutants. “
Asked about the main findings of the new report that the world did not know before, she said: “Yes, scientific advances allow AR6 (this report) to better understand and attribute human influence on the climate system. Extreme weather events can be attributed. man-made climate change with greater certainty.
“For the first time, the Sixth Assessment Report provides a more detailed regional assessment of climate change, including a focus on useful information that can inform risk assessment, adaptation and other decision-making. . “
With 7,517 km of coastline, India will face major threats from rising sea levels. In six port cities – Chennai, Kochi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Surat and Visakhapatnam – 28.6 million people will be exposed to coastal flooding if sea level rises 50 cm, according to a study.
(Vishal Gulati can be contacted at [email protected])