Bangladesh economy will be 24th in 2036, CEBR says

Engineers install the final span of the 6.15 km long Padma Multipurpose Bridge on December 10, 2020 Mehedi Hasan / Dhaka Tribune

This would represent an increase of 18 places in the ranking over the next 14 years.

The Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) has predicted that Bangladesh is expected to claim the crown of the world’s 24th economy within 14 years, according to a report released on Sunday.

This would represent a gain of 18 places in the standings.

The CEBR, one of the UK’s leading economic consultancies, also predicted in its annual World Economic League table that Bangladesh would likely rise a notch in 2022 to rank 41st on the 191 list. country.

In addition, the country is expected to reach 34th place in 2026, 29th position in 2031 and finally 24th position in 2036.

The London-based think-tank said that previously Bangladesh held the 58th, 59th and 46th positions in 2006, 2011 and 2016, respectively, indicating an upward trend in economic performance and steady growth.

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“In 2021, Bangladesh is estimated to have a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $ 5,733 and is classified as a lower middle income country. Before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, per capita incomes were on an upward trajectory, due to a robust rate of economic expansion paired with a low rate of population growth, which averaged just 1 , 0% per year between 2016 and 2021, ”the report reads.

Bangladesh has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world over the past decade due to a number of factors, the report adds.

“It benefits from a demographic dividend, as the proportion of its working-age population exceeds that of the inactive. In addition, strong international demand for its ready-to-wear clothes [RMG] strengthened export revenues, against a background of stable macroeconomic conditions, ”CEBR said.

These conditions, together with a competent workforce, skilled in information and communication technologies, have enabled it to attract a significant volume of investment from foreign companies in its telecommunications industry.

In addition, its strategic location allows easy access to trade with southwest China via the Indian Ocean; this has prompted China to invest heavily in the Bangladeshi economy in recent years, the CEBR noted.

“Bangladesh’s economy grew 3.5% in 2020 – a rare achievement by international standards. This can be largely attributed to a relatively low incidence of the coronavirus in 2020, allowing economic activity to maintain some form of normalcy, ”the report says.

According to the CEBR, large inflows of remittances, as well as a rebound in exports, also contributed to the growth of the economy during the year.

“However, the emergence of the ‘Delta’ variant has taken its toll in Bangladesh, with around 16,000 cases at its peak. Nonetheless, the economy accelerated in 2021, with 4.6% growth expected this year, although this is well below the pre-pandemic growth rates achieved by the economy, ”the report said. .

The CEBR added that in mid-December 2021, the Covid-19 death rate in Bangladesh was generally low compared to most countries around the world, with less than 17 deaths per 100,000 population recorded since the start. of the pandemic.

More than half (52.4%) of residents have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, signaling that the country’s vaccination campaign is on track by global standards. Overall, however, the share of the total population that has been fully immunized is well below 26.6%.

The government recorded a budget deficit of 5.9% in 2021, facilitated in part by the low debt-to-GDP ratio, noted the CEBR, adding that: “This should have supported the economy in recent months. However, the economy faces multiple obstacles to its medium and long term prospects. ”

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The centers suggested that Bangladesh diversify its exports beyond the RMG sector, as the world moves towards a goal of net zero emissions, it would be wise for Bangladesh to follow suit and incorporate sustainable practices into its production processes. .

Filling the infrastructure gaps would also reduce the disparities in opportunity between geographic regions, thereby boosting economic growth, he added.

India ranks first in the South Asian region since the report’s first edition was released in 2009, and is expected to become the third-largest economy by 2031.

Bangladesh is currently the region’s second-largest economy, according to the report, and will continue to maintain its position until 2036 with a GDP of $ 884 billion at constant prices (currently $ 325 billion).

Pakistan (46th) occupies third position, followed by Sri Lanka (69th), Nepal (99th), Maldives (154th) and Bhutan (164th) in South Asia.

The United States (1st), China (2nd), and Japan (3rd) are currently the top three economies in the world, and China is predicted to become the largest over the next decade.

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