The effect of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis on the situation on the Korean peninsula
The Chinese Silk Road and its main strategic zones of traffic and influence in the Chinese regions of Xinjiang and Arakan in Myanmar, which concentrate Muslim minorities in the two countries, serve as a table for a new strategic conflict between the United States of America and China, in which Washington threatens to obstruct China’s Silk Road project, which connects China to the world via a network of ports, railways and highways.
We note here the indirect reason for the US focus on launching an attack on China regarding Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang and the state of Myanmar regarding the Rohingya Muslim minority in the Arkan region and its relationship to the conflict. Sino-American in the South China Sea. , which is (the Chinese Silk Road or a large part of it passes mainly through the eastern part of Turkestan, which is located in the northwest of China in Xinjiang, inhabited by Uyghur Muslims, on the border to the port of Gwadar in southwestern Pakistan, and another route from it passes through two Chinese ports under construction in the Arkan region of Myanmar, which is home to the Muslim Rohingya minority in Burma or Myanmar) .
We note here that China’s two strategic ports or routes in the (Xinjiang region and Arkan region in the state of Myanmar can avoid China’s passage through the “Strait of Malacca”, which is located between Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore), and the American fleets impose their influence on it, especially since 90% of the oil trade is with neighboring countries. The South China Sea, including China, passes through this Strait of Malacca, close to the South China Sea.
Here, China considers that each of the regions (East Turkestan in Xinjiang and the Arakan region in the State of Myanmar) represents a strategic option to free itself from the “American strategy of encirclement” in its confrontation, which is the strategy adopted by the United States of America to contain the Chinese threat, whether from the eastern front, via Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, or from the southern front in the South China Sea thanks to the formation of the “Aukus Defense” alliance, which includes Australia, Great Britain and the United States, with the possibility of including India).
For this reason, China accused the United States of invoking the atmosphere of the Cold War, warning its representative at the United Nations “Ambassador Zhang Jun”, on February 28, 2022, of the need to abandon Cold War mentality. based on the confrontation of the axes with each other, since there is no gain from the beginning of a new cold war, but everyone will lose in these confrontations.
On the other hand, the Taiwan Strait is a crisis point in China-US relations, especially after the outbreak of the Russian war against Ukraine, and here the (situation in Taiwan is one of the most significant tensions between China and the United States of America in light of Chinese movements near Taiwan), which deliberately demonstrate the extent of Chinese strength towards Taiwan and its allies, through hundreds of aircraft sorties Chinese during the recent period, in “the center of the air defense zone of Taiwan”.
The United States of America has also angered China by sending unofficial delegations of US officials to Taiwan, to affirm their support for the Taiwanese government and the country’s President “Tsai Ing-wen”.
China considers Taiwan an inalienable part of its territory and has pledged to one day return its sovereignty by force if necessary. Beijing is therefore wary of any reference to Taiwanese independence.
Chinese policy will continue, as expected, to oppose any attempt by Taiwan to gain diplomatic recognition, as well as to thwart Taiwan’s attempts to join international organizations.
With the ongoing tension in the Taiwan Strait, the possibility of China launching a military invasion is seen as the most dangerous tension shift between China and the United States of America, especially as it can announce military clashes between the two countries.
Until this moment, and through my careful reading of the scene, it seems here that the Communist Party in power in China is ready to calm down and stabilize despite the escalation of the tone which has been described as a simple discharge of this Chinese anger at the American intervention in Taiwan, especially after the start of preparations for its annual conference.
It can be seen here that the risk of China launching an attack on Taiwan before the (20th CPC Congress in 2022) is very low.
On the other hand, the impact of the conflict in the South China Sea on Sino-American relations appears. It is expected that the United States and its allies (will continue to conduct joint naval maneuvers under the pretext of ensuring the freedom of navigation in international waters ensured by Beijing).
On the other hand, it is certain that China will continue to strengthen and develop its naval fleet to defend its interests, knowing that all parties do not want a maritime conflict.
Perhaps we will see, after the war in Ukraine, an intensification of the American-Chinese rivalry, an intensification of the presence of American fleets in the South China Sea, and more provocative naval maneuvers by the United States, Taiwan and its allies in the “Indo-Pacific” region as a wake-up call from Washington to China and its Russian ally after the war in Ukraine, refers to (the determination not to accept Chinese expansion in the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea, in addition to the possibility of imposing new American sanctions on China, and the mutual closure of consulates in the event of an escalation of the conflict in this region after the Ukraine war) , especially with the desire of the United States of America to show its global superiority and achieve any victory or progress, perhaps falsely against China.