There’s a bad moon rising for Florida Democrats

Voter registration between Republicans and Democrats is now virtually equal, Previously reported politico.

Considering how the GOP has dominated state politics for more than 20 years, some who haven’t paid attention might think Democrats are recruiting thousands of new voters and are on the verge of getting fired. the blue state. But no, not even close.

Republicans won all three branches of state government despite the number of registered voters of less than 700,000 until 2008. By the end of 2012, that number had fallen to nearly 140,000.

Democrats still held a margin of around 100,000 in the 2020 election (which didn’t help them much).

As of August 31, that number had fallen to 23,551.

If the Democrats managed to lose with this decisive advantage over registered voters, what would happen now? There is a bad moon that rises unless they pull themselves together.

political journalist Matt Dixon called it “a political fire of five alarms directed towards the mid-terms of 2022”.

I have a few theories as to what happened, but first let me offer you this snippet from Democratic Consultant Steve Schale’s blog.

“We need to start meeting voters where they are. Too many Democrats assume that a “modeling score” is concrete proof that some voters will absolutely vote or not vote for us, and we ignore them, “he wrote.

“Guess what, we prove the model, and they don’t vote for us, or they don’t show up because we assume they will vote. Republicans don’t work that way. They aggressively attack “our voters”, and the results speak for themselves.

Democrats, once the workers’ party, have allowed themselves to be labeled as socialists, elitists, taxo-holics and, worse yet, unpatriotic. Meanwhile, Republicans have kept a consistent message: jobs, the economy, security, guns, law and order, and – we mentioned – jobs.

And Schale is right when he says Democrats tend to strike off large segments of voters.

Two words: The Villages.

They allowed Republicans to create a narrative that the teachers’ union has ruined public education. Democrats stammered and stammered during the riots in the aftermath of the George floyd murder.

Republicans – looking at you, Gov. Ron DeSantis – succeeded in tipping the story of a police reform to the need to explode the head against unruly crowds.

When Republicans fought against a minimum wage of $ 15 an hour, Democrats should have argued that skyrocketing rents and wage inequality were creating major problems for millions of Floridians.

But they didn’t.

Republicans keep it simple. You know where they stand on the issues, and they keep pace with Tallahassee. And when their mistakes hurt people – as we saw during the pandemic – they blame the media for their reporting.

Like it or not, strategy is political genius. The latest registration numbers prove it.

As we move closer to the 2022 election, polls show DeSantis approval numbers down. I don’t think it matters, though.

His campaign chest will have more money than Fort Knox. That will be more than enough to label his Democratic challenger – Charlie crist Where Nikki Fried – a socialist who wants to indoctrinate your children with a critical theory of race and teach them to hate America.

The Democrats’ best (and perhaps the only) hope is to convince the state’s nearly 3.8 million independent voters that they have the best vision.

Of course, that would help articulate that vision first and repeat it until the words permeate. And Dems better hope it’s more than “DeSantis.” Bad. We. Good.”

It didn’t work against Rick scott Where Marco rubio, and it didn’t work here last year against Donald trump.

Maybe it’s time for a new game plan.

Oh, and register more voters too. It might help.

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