Two unique and powerful forces will influence the mid-term
If the 2022 midterm elections had an official soundtrack, it would be the disturbing music for the 1975 film ”Jaws.“
Although the elections are 13 months away, the increasing intensity makes it seem like great white sharks are circling our national boat with a convergence of two powerful political forces never seen before. Both forces are the hangover of the 2020 election with the potential to make 2022 the most tumultuous midterms in modern American history.
The first force is the growing lack of confidence of voters in our electoral system. Second, the imminent presence of Donald J. Trump, a one-tenure and twice impeached human lightning rod, who is still the de facto leader of the Republican Party. No former president in history has ever injected himself into the midterms to this degree, and certainly not into the primary process.
Curious about Matt Schlapp’s take on these two forces, I contacted the renowned president of the American Conservative Union. A staunch supporter of Trump, Schlapp is one of the most influential Republicans in the country, and as a host of CPAC, he leads a powerful MAGA army.
It is clear that he, like the titular leader of this army, did not really accept the results of the 2020 vote.
“Having a big question mark over a presidential election is bad for democracy,” Schlapp said. “We should know who won. And one of the ways we’ll know is if we’re all following the same rules. We have to start voting again like we did in 2016. Will the Democrats try to pull off the same shenanigans next year? I know this: The American people are outraged by the Democratic agenda, and if we vote fairly, they will be bombed. “
There is a story of new presidents getting “shelled” in their first midterm election, their party losing control of the House, Senate, or both. In 2010, President Obama used “Crushing” to describe his first monumental mid-term defeat when Republicans took control of the House with a net gain of 63 seats – a number not achieved since 1948. The vice-president at the time, Joe Biden, surely remembers this repudiation.
Perhaps the most astonishing mid-term defeat was that of Bill Clinton in 1994. Forty-two years had passed since the Republicans took full control of Capitol Hill. The architect of this remarkable victory which won the GOP 54 House and eight Senate seats was Newt Gingrich, who became Speaker of the House.
I emailed Gingrich, asking if 2022 had the makings of a GOP win tied with 1994.
“If Republicans can discipline themselves to consistently describe Democrats as ‘big government socialists’ and the $ 3.5 trillion spending and $ 3 trillion tax hike as big socialist bills government – this is, after all, Senator Bernie Sanders’ bill – I think we can earn a massive victory in the House and Senate next year, ”Gingrich replied.
I also asked Schlapp to weigh in on the prospects for a 1994 scale victory. He happily bites the hook.
“Guaranteed!” noted. “Unless we don’t have the courage to stand up to cheating. Otherwise, it will be more mixed. If the left understands that we are going to go to the barricades to make sure cheating is exposed, then I think their agenda will be rejected. “
Then, after exposing Biden’s liberal left agenda, Schlapp said, “When people understand the politics of socialism, they reject it in this country.”
On Trump, former president’s midterm pledge is a force to be reckoned with for both parties. I asked Schlapp if Trump’s involvement was a winning strategy for the GOP.
“I think President Trump is doing what it takes to spend his time and money making sure we win as many seats in the Senate and Congress as possible, and I applaud him for that,” he said. he replied. “In the past he’s been accused of not spending so much time on those mid-course races. Now he is committed to doing so and he will help us win many seats through these efforts. “
Then I asked Schlapp, “If the Republicans do well in 2022, will Trump take credit for it?” And if they don’t, will Trump say it’s because his name wasn’t on the ballot? With either result, will he see it his way? Schlapp parried this point.
“If Republicans, with so many promises, end up hurting halfway through, I think it would likely have a negative impact on President Trump’s thinking about the candidacy. [in 2024]He said. “Democrats have never embraced this type of radical political agenda. And if this turns out to be popular with the American people, I think it’s going to be very disheartening for Republicans. I don’t think so. not that the chances of that happening are very high, but I’m willing to accept the premise. “
However, if the mid-terms of 2022 are going well for the GOP and Trump decides to run, I asked Schlapp if he thinks Trump would have main opposition or be crowned a candidate without a fight. He told me:
“I think Trump will have major adversaries, a path without Trump, and I don’t know how many there will be. President Trump should want these opponents because he’s so much better in the ring when he’s competing against someone. I don’t know if I can see him being crowned. I don’t know how he would react to that – he’s so used to fighting! But Trump will be a better candidate if he has to hire someone immediately. I think the primaries can be a good thing.
Then Schlapp proclaimed, “If Trump shows up again, he’s basically the incumbent. “
Meanwhile, listen to the ominous music of sharks spinning in the water. With voters’ lack of confidence in our electoral system, Trump taking center stage, Democrats in disarray, legal redistribution battles looming, Biden failing quickly, and all the collective, economic and cultural angst of our country. nation, I remember the most famous line of “Jaws“ as we approach mid-term 2022: “We’re going to need a bigger boat.